2025 CPG Brand Profitability Outlook
This article serves as a case study where the 2021-2024/5 boom-stall-bust-reset cycle periods experienced by FlavorWave Snaps are presented and discussed through the lens of the financial impacts of pricing, velocity, distribution, trade promotions and COGS.
The ROAS Profitability Hockey Stick
ROAS is misleading. It paints half a picture in that it leaves out all the other costs that actually impact profitability. There is no "return" in that metric. COGS, logistic expenses, other trade/digital marketing fees and discounts are all missing from that equation.
Differentiation & Distinctiveness - A Mayo Sandwich Perspective
Differentiation and Distinctiveness do not matter much, if they are not scalable.
Differentiation, actual or perceived, and Distinctiveness are NOT SUFFICIENTLY discussed within the context of scalability and/or fundability (the capacity to invest marketing Dollars in growth).
Inflationary Pricing: Surviving the Profitability Crunch
Even, if CPG price increases subside from a prevailing 12-15% rate to a range of 7-9%, these annualized increases are here to stay for a few years. How established and emerging CPG brands manage pricing and resource trade-offs will determine whether they will survive or fail.
CPG Gross Margins: Ecommerce vs Retail Channels
Comparing gross margin targets and achievements between ecommerce and bricks 'n mortar channels can be a frustrating and futile exercise. Focus on Dollar Sales Contribution per unit instead!
Not all Gross Margins are Created Equal
Misconceptions on how gross margins and sales contribution margins are calculated are quite prevalent and can lead to poor and sub-optimal, marketing, operational and financial decisions.
Nothing Happens Until You Sell Something
Distribution is about selling “the something” on to that shelf and velocity is about selling “the something” off that shelf. And, the two are not mutually exclusive. You need velocity growth to entice buyers to expand and sustainably retain distribution. You need distribution to give you scale.
Distribution and Velocity - Back to Basics
More important than the absolute value of velocity itself, is whether velocity is increasing or decreasing. A velocity that is increasing is one of the strongest signals of brand strength and equity.
Don't Let Your Emerging CPG Brand Wither on the Vine
No marketing or startup team sets out to build an emerging CPG brand that will fail. No CEO starts off with muted expectations and aspirations. Yet, many emerging CPG brands never get to fulfill their very ambitious goals. They wither and die on the vine. They fail.
2021. Are we nearly there yet?
The core lessons, in this series of articles, centers around Five Growth Imperatives. These imperatives underpin many emerging brands that have achieved sustainable and profitable scaling success.
Managing what Matters, Not what is Easy
Maximizing sales velocity is NOT the same as maximizing margin velocity, especially if a brand is to be built for the long-term. Growth strategies and the respective execution tactics to maximize sales velocity versus margin velocity, carry different profitability implications and trade-offs.
The Rabbit runs faster than the Fox
Fundamental to the difficulty and the challenge that incumbents face when acquiring and integrating nimbler brands is the dynamism and spirited culture that is inherent in the DNA of those founding teams.
A New Reality for Craft Beer
The big squeeze will tighten for brewers caught between macro beer and an elongating tail. High rotation levels, limited tap-handle placements and constrained off-premise shelf-space are the 800-pound gorilla in the room.
Barrel Roll-ups and Mash Networks
What large brewers fear most is not the increasingly long tail of micro-brewers. The game-changing threat is the emergence of well-structured and managed brewery networks and roll-ups that retain the critical attribute of independence and agility.
Lean Startup and Customer Development
The development and adoption of the lean startup and customer development methodology within the tech startup world has proven to significantly reduce failure risk for compelling and scalable ventures.
Small businesses vs. Scalable startups
Most entrepreneurial new businesses do not choose to remain a small business. They aspire to greater prospects. However, the truth is that not all new small businesses are truly scalable.